From August to October 2024, Ukrainian forces managed to halt the Russian advance in central Donbas, but the cost was high. To defend this area, Ukraine had to redirect troops from other fronts, leaving some positions weaker and vulnerable. Meanwhile, Russian forces were making gains, pushing along the Siversky Donets River towards Sloviansk and capturing key territories like the Kreminna forest, which had been under Ukrainian control since the fall of 2022. They also advanced through the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions with little resistance.
展开剩余85%In places like Orekhiv in southern Zaporizhzhia and Kupiansk in the east near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s defenses were also under threat. While the focus was on holding central Donbas, gaps elsewhere allowed Russian forces to gain ground. In early August, Russia launched a significant offensive, pushing about 20 kilometers toward the vital road connecting Dobropillia and Kramatorsk, even reaching the outskirts of Dobropillia. Ukrainian forces were initially caught off guard, as most of their resources were focused on the core defensive positions in central Donbas. By mid-August, Ukraine reacted by redirecting reinforcements to Dobropillia, with troops coming from Sumy, Kupiansk, and other areas. These reinforcements pushed Russian troops back from the road between Dobropillia and Kramatorsk.
Despite this, Ukraine’s attempts to encircle the Russian forces and cut off their supply lines from both the western and eastern flanks failed. Russian forces strengthened their positions, sending in additional troops to reinforce their foothold. By September, Russia had bolstered their presence around Dobropillia, bringing in units from various regions, including marines, to stabilize their position.
By early October, Russia had largely secured its position, but Ukrainian claims of recapturing key areas like Dorozhne and Novosakhov in the west lacked solid proof, with no credible images to back up these claims. On the eastern front, Russian forces continued to press towards strategic villages like Shakhov and Sofiivka, aiming to secure their flank. Control over these areas would strengthen Russia’s position, making any Ukrainian counterattacks more difficult.
As the frontlines shifted, Russia’s control over key villages in central Donbas continued to solidify, and although Ukraine briefly retook some villages, the Russian push remained relentless. Meanwhile, Russian forces moved to cut off key routes in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, including pushing towards the vital Hulyaipole-Bohdanivka route, a critical supply line for Ukrainian forces. The inability to defend these strategic roads weakened Ukraine's position.
In areas like Zaporizhzhia, the Russian offensive was widening, with Russian troops targeting Orikhiv, a crucial base during Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive. Additionally, as the Kakhovka dam disaster had drained the reservoir, Russian forces now had better access to previously difficult-to-reach areas like Kamyanske, and the advancing threat from the Dnipro River added further pressure on Ukrainian defenses. If Russia were to push further into northern Orikhiv, they could start threatening Zaporizhzhia city itself.
Ultimately, the war in Donbas has become a battle of attrition. While Ukraine has seen tactical successes in the central region, new gaps continue to open up on other fronts. With both sides running low on reserves, the true challenge for Ukrainian commanders is not just holding current positions, but managing dwindling resources for the battles to come. The strategic focus has shifted to how much manpower and supplies remain available as the conflict drags on.
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